70% of Bitcoin Hasn’t Moved For Over 6 Months, and It Means a Big Bull Run is Coming

If you’ve followed the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency space at all over the past few years, you likely know of the term “HODL,” A misspelling of the word “hold,” HODL is an industry joke used by cryptocurrency investors who believe that the price of BTC will appreciate with time, primarily due to adoption and the asset’s disinflationary inflation schedule, created by “halvings” every four years.

While “HODL” is seen as a joke by many, hard data shows that it’s more than just a meme, it’s reality.
 

Bitcoin HODLers Bullish Into 2020 Halving

Alistair Milne of Altana Digital Currency Fund recently noted that according to on-chain analytics — specifically Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) — nearly 70% of the 18.12 million BTC in circulation “hasn’t been moved for over 6 months.”

While this is notable in and of itself, Milne quipped that the last time this trend was seen was a few months out from the previous halving, in 2016 after a brutal bear market.

Milne’s tweet comes shortly after Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, made a similar observation, remarking that 6.8 million BTC has changed hands in the last 12 months, less than 50% of all of the cryptocurrency in circulation.

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According to Eric Stone, the head of data science at Flipside, the fact that such a large sum of Bitcoin is “dormant” implies that a “dramatic shift” in the cryptocurrency industry and market is on the horizon.

While Stone didn’t elucidate on what direction said dramatic shift will take Bitcoin, analysts are sure that this pre-halving HODL mentality is a precursor to a massive bull run, one that will make BTC’s 330% gain from January to June look like peanuts.

Related Reading: CME Futures Data: Institutions Still Wary Despite Bitcoin’s Bullish Signs

What Does It Mean For Prices?

That begs the question — what does Bitcoin investors’ propensity to HODL ahead of the May 2020 halving mean for the cryptocurrency market? Well, it implies, analysts say, that BTC is on the verge of entering its next bull run.

Melik Manukyan, a prominent Bitcoin commentator and engineer, recently posted the chart below, showing that the scarcity of the leading cryptocurrency — only accentuated by the HODL investment strategy that exists — should lead to dramatic price appreciation with a multi-month lag following the event.

The engineer remarked that halvings will have a large impact on the supply-demand economics of the BTC market, which should eventually result in prices heading higher to a decrease in mined supply being sold on the market.

This has been echoed by Milne himself. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, the long-time cryptocurrency investor said that after the halving comes into effect in 2020, 50% of all newly mined Bitcoin will be absorbed by the purchases of clients of two companies: Grayscale through its Bitcoin Trust and Square through its BTC buying service. This ignores the inflows from Coinbase customers, people buying cryptocurrency through RobinHood and eToro, and so on and so forth.

This ties in heavily with Manukyan’s sentiment that the halving will force prices higher due to stagnant/increasing demand, coupled with a decrease in incoming supply.

As to exact price targets, previous halvings were precursors to rallies of over 1,000%, making some believe something similar could take place again in the coming cryptocurrency market cycle.

Case in point, PlanB’s stock-to-flow model, which relates BTC’s market capitalization to the scarcity of the asset, found that the leading cryptocurrency will have a fair market capitalization of $1 trillion following the 2020 halving.

 

Nick Chong

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin & Crypto Market Could Rise Again – BNB, BCH, LTC, EOS Analysis

• The total crypto market cap is holding the key $182.0B and $180.0B support levels.

• Bitcoin price is trading above the $7,200 support and it could start a fresh increase.

• Litecoin (LTC) price is slowly rising and it might test the $41.20 resistance.

• BCH price is up 4% and it is moving higher towards the $200 resistance area.

• EOS price is rising and it seems like it could attempt to clear the $2.700 resistance.

• Binance coin (BNB) is struggling to clear the $13.50 and $13.80 resistance levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market cap are holding key support levels. Many altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), binance coin (BNB), ripple, litecoin, BCH, EOS, TRX, and ADA are consolidating.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

After a downside correction, bitcoin cash price found support near the $185 level against the US Dollar. BCH price is currently moving higher and it is trading above the $190 level. The price is up around 4% and it could continue to rise towards the $200 resistance level.

On the downside, the $185 level is a major support area. If there is a downside break below the $185 support, the price could revisit the $170 support area.

Binance Coin (BNB), Litecoin (LTC) and EOS Price Analysis

Binance coin (BNB) price found support near the $12.80 level and recently recovered above the $13.00 level. BNB price is currently consolidating near $13.20 and it might rise slowly towards the main $13.50 and $13.80 resistance levels.

Litecoin price is somehow holding the $40.00 support levels. On the upside, an initial resistance for LTC/USD is near the $41.20 level, above which the price is likely to accelerate higher. The next major resistance is seen near the $42.50 level. On the downside, the main supports are $39.50 and $48.40.

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EOS price is trading with a positive bias above the $2.500 resistance area. If the price continues to rise, it could face hurdles near the $2.650 and $2.700 levels. On the downside, a clear break below the $2.500 level might start another decline towards the $2.300 level in the near term.

Crypto Market Cap

Looking at the total cryptocurrency market cap hourly chart, there was a failed breakout attempt near the $195.0B resistance area. The crypto market cap is now near the $185.0B level and it seems like it could rise slowly towards the $195.0B resistance.

Conversely, a break below the $182.0B support might spark a fresh decrease in bitcoin, Ethereum, EOS, litecoin, ripple, ADA, BCH, XLM, BNB, TRX, XMR, and other altcoins in the near term.

 

Aayush Jindal

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Self-Acclaimed Bitcoin Creator Sets To Become Crypto Millionaire

Craig Wright, an Australian business man and controversial self-acclaimed creator of bitcoin submitted an email to the court, according to which he will receive private keys for wallets with 1.1 million bitcoins.

Craig according to rumours is also set to get access to more than 1 million bitcoins as the entire crypto space is on the lookout to see where his case ends up.

The self-acclaimed bitcoin creator has been a subject to several forensic checks and made major news headlines as crypto expert and researchers try to verify his claims of being Satoshi Nakamoto who is also dubbed Japanese Adam Smith.

Earlier in August, 2019, he was found guilty in a law court in Florida, US of submitting false documents and told a lie in a legal dispute with the estate of his former partner.

Owing to that, the self acclaimed bitcoin creator was ruled to surrender more than $4 billion of cryptocurrency which account for over 50% of the bitcoin he mined with his former business associate from 2008 until Kleiman’s death in 2013.

This case between Craig and Kleiman estate is regarded as one of the most popular court cases in the crypto industry.

Craig’s claim to be bitcoin creator true

Amidst several controversies of Craig’s claim to be false, a certain per cent of players in the crypto space believes Craig’s claim are actually true.

After revealing his identity to three media organizations; the BBC, the Economist and GQ.

At a meeting with one of these media houses, Craig digitally signed messages using cryptographic keys created during the early days of bitcoin’s development.

The keys are inseparably linked to blocks of bitcoins known to have been created or “mined” by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Renowned cryptographer Hal Finney was one of the engineers who helped turn Mr Wright’s ideas into the Bitcoin protocol, he said.

“I was the main part of it, but other people helped me,” he said.

Convinced Craig’s witnesses step forward

Soon after Mr Wright went public, Gavin Andresen, chief scientist at the bitcoin Foundation, published a blog backing his claim.

“I believe Craig Steven Wright is the person who invented bitcoin,” he wrote.

Another economist, Jon Matonis, and one of the founding directors of the bitcoin Foundation, said he was convinced that Mr Wright was who he claimed to be.

“During the London proof sessions, I had the opportunity to review the relevant data along three distinct lines: cryptographic, social, and technical,” he said.

“It is my firm belief that Craig Wright satisfies all three categories.”

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David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Why Bitcoin Price Could Surge 18% By the End Of the Week

Bitcoin’s precipitous drop to $6,600 seen last month caught many traders aback; nearly no one, not even the top traders and analysts, expected for that price action to play out as it did in real life. Few predicted the subsequent bounce to $7,800, where BTC sits as of the time of writing this, too.

Related Reading: High Likelihood Bitcoin Bottom Came In at $6,400; Here’s Why

Though, one trader has been calling the moves all along, using a lesser-known and slightly unorthodox method of analysis to predict the directionality of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market.

The trader, NebraskanGooner. The method, fractal analysis.

Bitcoin Ready to Jump 18%, Fractal Says

Over the past few months, a popular trader on Twitter, NebraskanGooner, has been touting what is known as a “fractal” via his social media pages. For those who missed the memo, a fractal in financial contexts is when the “historical price pattern or direction of an asset is reflected/seen again on a different time frame and/or for a different asset.”

The fractal that the aforementioned cryptocurrency analyst has mentioned is sourced from Bitcoin’s price action in 2014, specifically the bear market and the subsequent recovery.

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As seen below, Bitcoin has been tracking this specific fractal for months now, with it even calling BTC’s most recent decline to $6,400, then the subsequent recovery to $7,700 just this weekend.

The fractal now suggests that by the end of this week, Bitcoin will be trading at $8,500 — 18% above current prices, before an eventual retracement back to the mid-$7,000s.

Not Only Bullish Signal

Of course, it isn’t only the abovementioned Bitcoin fractal that suggests gains are imminent.

According to Scott “The Wolf of All Streets” Melker, BTC’s performance last week has created a very important signal on the weekly chart: a “massive bullish divergence in oversold territory on Stochastic Relative Strength Index.” For those unaware, the divergence Melker has pointed out is the fact that the Stochastic RSI is trending higher while the price is putting in lower lows.

Per the trader, this is the fourth time this signal has been seen since the $20,000 top seen in late-2017. The first preceded a bear market rally from $6,400 to $9,900 in mid-2018, the second preceded the 330% jump in the Bitcoin price seen from December 2018 to June 2019, and the third predicted the move from $7,400 and $10,400 that took place just weeks ago.

Considering the historical bullish significance of this signal, there’s a high likelihood that BTC could begin to gain bullish momentum on a medium-term time frame in the coming weeks.

 

Nick Chong

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

$7,700 to $7,300 – Where Bitcoin Is Heading After Violent Rejection

Bitcoin (BTC) has been caught in a firm uptrend over the past several days, which has primarily been the result of the massive upwards momentum that was sparked when it tapped lows of $6,400 earlier last week.

This momentum led BTC as high as $7,700 today before it was met with significant resistance that led its price reeling back down to the lower $7,000 region, although analysts expect this movement to be fleeting and followed by an extension of this newfound upwards momentum.

Bitcoin Drops to $7,400, But Downwards Movement May Be Fleeting

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up over 2% at its current price of $7,350, which marks a slight drop from its daily highs of $7,700 that were set earlier this week.

The swift rejection incurred by the cryptocurrency this morning sent it as low as $7,250, but bulls have been able to support the crypto above this level.

Although the rejection at this level does seem to spell some trouble for the cryptocurrency, it is important to note that analysts widely believe that it will be followed by an extension of its upwards momentum, as this latest drop could simply be driven by BTC filling an open CME gap around its current price levels.

HornHairs, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, explained in a recent tweet that he is entering a long around BTC’s current prices, anticipating another rise up to its range highs of roughly $7,700.

“$BTC long scalp. Punted a long on the sweep below local lows… Already took half off around here due to the CME gap being below price, making this a free ride. Bear trap or gap fill? Let’s see…” he explained while pointing to the chart below.

How bulls respond to this rejection in the coming hours will offer significant insight into where Bitcoin will lead the aggregated crypto markets next.

 

Cole Petersen

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Analyst That Called Bitcoin’s Crash to $6,000s Expects Price to Rebound

In June, when Bitcoin was soaring above $10,000, nearly every trader and their mother expected the cryptocurrency to continue rocketing higher.

Though, one analyst incessantly called for rationality to return to the crypto markets, claiming that this surge above $10,000 was a clear overextension of BTC’s long-term growth curve. He went as far as to say that Bitcoin was poised to return to $6,700.

The analyst, “Dave the Wave” was recently proven correct when late last month, BTC fell from $8,000 to $6,700, validating a call he made over five months earlier.

Although there remain bearish factors in this market, Dave is starting to believe that it’s time for Bitcoin’s uptrend to resume, drawing attention to technical factors to back this optimistic opinion.

Bitcoin Price to Soon Rebound, Prominent Analyst Says

Dave recently noted that his price target’s for the cryptocurrency market’s de-facto “M1, M2, and M3” readings, which in traditional markets are the measure of different forms of “money” in the world’s economy, have recently hit his retracement targets: M1, Bitcoin’s market cap, has seen a 50% retracement; M2, the total market cap, a 61% retracement; and M3, the altcoin market cap, a 78% retracement.

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These retracement values are Fibonacci Retracement values, making them notable in the eyes of technical analysts. For Dave, the fact that these measures have reached those retracements implies crypto may soon rebound.

He followed this up with the post seen below, in which the prominent analyst remarked that he expects for Bitcoin’s one-week Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator to turn upward, which will kick off the next round of growth in the BTC market.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price is Poised to Return to $6,500 Lows; Analysts Explain Why

This comes shortly after he asserted that Bitcoin will bottom in the $6,000s, looking to the following confluence of factors to back this analysis:

the three-year moving average—which currently sits in the low-$6,000s—is where BTC historically has found support in early bull markets;

the weekly Gaussian channel indicator is bullish, and the channel’s midpoint sits at $6,600;

the cryptocurrency has bounced off the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement level of the $3,200 to $13,800 range, implying bottoming price action.

Do Others Agree?

The question remains – do other analysts agree with his lofty sentiment?

Some do, some don’t.

Velvet, a popular cryptocurrency trader, recently argued that “this week[‘s close]” for BTC is “very important,” noting that the key thing Bitcoin will need to do by Sunday’s close is “holding a” key trend line.

For reference, the trend line in question, which always ended up in bear markets when BTC crossed below it, currently sits in the high-$6,000s, which BTC is currently above.

If Bitcoin rides that level, Velvet remarked that Bitcoin “could see $20,000 by March,” referencing the fact that prior to previous halvings, BTC always surged, rallying higher on the expectation that a negative supply shock would hit the market.

Nick Chong

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin’s fantastic year – Great returns for investors

2019 has been a good year for the cryptocurrency market, with the price of many tokens increasing steadily in value throughout the year.

Bitcoin – the world’s largest cryptocurrency – was priced at $3,739 at the beginning of 2019, while as of 1 December, it had more than doubled in value and was back up to $7,570.

This is great news for investors who held on their cryptocurrency investment through volatile dips and rallies, as they would have seen a great return.

The price is nowhere near the historic highs the digital currency reached in late 2017, but it shows a steady rally in investor support despite its volatility.

The euphoria surrounding cryptocurrencies has long since faded compared to the market’s rally in 2017, but many fans and investors are growing interested in the potential applications of the technology.

Regulation also plays a role in the price of cryptocurrencies, as well as the potential applications of digital currencies – even centralised ones like Facebook’s Libra.

Below is an overview of Bitcoin’s price increase from 1 January – 1 December 2019.
 

Bitcoin price changes

1 January 2019 – $3,739

1 December 2019 – $7,570

Increase – 102%

What happened this year

The cryptocurrency market saw general growth this year, despite retaining its trademark volatility.

Luno Africa general manager Marius Reitz stated that this year’s blockchain-related headlines were dominated by Facebook’s announcement of Libra, its asset-backed stablecoin.

“With access to a massive user base, Libra has the potential to bring cryptocurrency into the mainstream,” Reitz said.

Another major moment was when the owners of the New York Stock Exchange launched Bakkt, a platform designed to push Bitcoin much deeper into mainstream adoption by offering physically settled Bitcoin futures contracts.

Other significant news including the increased attention given to digital currencies by regulators, as well as the formation of plans for central banks to develop their own cryptocurrencies.

“Cryptocurrencies are a new asset class, so there is a higher level of volatility compared with traditional trading,” Reitz said.

“This is further fuelled by the global political landscape including trade talks, elections and Brexit, as well as relatively low levels of liquidity and the use of the coins for speculation.”

“Despite volatility, the price of Bitcoin is more than 100% higher than it was a year ago and its price trajectory over time continues to rise,” he added.

“As cryptocurrency starts to be used for its core purpose of exchanging value and regulation is introduced, the price will become more stable.”

 

Jamie McKane19 December 2019

 

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin And Crypto Market Cap Remain In Downtrend – BCH, BNB, EOS, TRX Analysis

• The total crypto market cap is trading well below the $192.0B and $200.0B resistance levels.

• Bitcoin price is struggling to stay above the main $7,000 support area.

• EOS price is declining and it is likely to trade below the $2.500 support area.

• Binance Coin (BNB) is approaching the key $14.00 support area.

• BCH price is still holding the main $205 and $200 support levels.

• Tron (TRX) price is now trading below the $0.0140 support area, with a bearish angle.

The crypto market cap and bitcoin (BTC) are showing a lot of bearish signs. Ethereum (ETH), binance coin (BNB), ripple, BCH, tron (TRX), litecoin and EOS are trading near key supports.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

After a short term upward correction, bitcoin cash price failed to climb above the $225 resistance area against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair is currently declining and it is trading near the $205 support area.

On the downside, the main support is near the $200 level. If there is a downside break below the $200 handle, there is a risk of more losses in the near term. The next key support is near the $185 level.s

Binance Coin (BNB), EOS, Tron (TRX) Price Analysis

EOS price failed to surpass the $2.700 resistance area and recently started a fresh decline. The price is now trading below the $2.600 level and it is approaching the $2.500 support area. If there is a downside break below the $2.500 level, there is a risk of more losses towards $2.350.

Tron price is showing a lot of bearish signs and it recently settled below the $0.0140 level. TRX price is about to continue lower towards the $0.0135 support area, where buyers are likely to appear. On the upside, there are many hurdles near $0.0140 and $0.0142.

Binance coin (BNB) followed a bearish path below the $15.00 resistance area. BNB price even settled below the $14.50 level and it could continue to decline towards the $14.00 support area. Any further losses below $14.00 might put the bulls under a lot of pressure in the near term.

Crypto Market Cap

Looking at the total cryptocurrency market cap 4-hours chart, there was a steady decline below the $195.0B level. The crypto market cap even broke the $192.0B support and it is now below the $190.0 level. If there is a downside break below $185.0B and $182.0B, the market cap could continue to slide.

Therefore, there are chances of more downsides in bitcoin, Ethereum, TRX, LTC, EOS, ripple, ADA, XLM, WTC, BCH, and ICX in the near term.

 

Aayush Jindal

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Downside Thrust Underway, Bulls Struggling

• Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $7,400 support and declined recently against the US Dollar.

• The price is trading below $7,280 and it could even decline below the $7,160 support.

• There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near $7,240 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

• The pair remains at a risk of a downside thrust below $7,160 and $7,040 in the near term.

Bitcoin price is showing a few bearish signs below $7,280 against the US Dollar. BTC is likely to continue lower below $7,160 unless it climbs above $7,400.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Yesterday, we saw a downside break in bitcoin price below the $7,400 support against the US Dollar. BTC price broke many supports near $7,320 and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Moreover, the bears were able to push the price below the $7,280 support area. Finally, the price traded below the $7,200 support and tested the $7,160 support zone.

A low was formed near $7,159 and the price is currently correcting higher. An immediate resistance is near the $7,240 and $7,250 levels. Besides, there is a major declining channel forming with resistance near $7,240 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Above the channel resistance, the $7,280 level is a key resistance. Additionally, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $7,664 high to $7,159 low.

If bitcoin manages to recover above $7,240 and $7,280, the price could climb towards the next major resistance near the $7,400 area. More importantly, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $7,664 high to $7,159 low is also near the $7,410 level to stop the bulls.

If the bulls succeed in clearing the $7,400 resistance area, the price could surge towards $7,660 or $7,700. On the other hand, the price may perhaps continue to move down below $7,200.

An immediate support is near $7,160, below which the price is likely to accelerate towards $7,040 or $7,000 in the near term. Any further losses might call for a test of the $6,600 area.

 

Bitcoin Price

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is facing an increase in selling below $7,400 and $7,280. As long as it is trading below $7,400, there remains a risk of another drop below $7,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is showing negative signs in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently well below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $7,160 followed by $7,040.

Major Resistance Levels – $7,280, $7,400 and $7,420.

 

 

Aayush Jindal

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden