(Kitco News) – After spot gold set an all-time record daily closing price on Wednesday, the precious metal continued to trade at elevated levels on Thursday, with some analysts predicting the strength is likely to extend into the new year.

“In the first week of December, it looked like gold was set for a bit of a reality check after the rally above $2,100 fizzled rather quickly,” said Justin Low, currency analyst at ForexLive. “That saw price dip back below $2,000 but gold bugs have definitely salvaged the situation in a push to a record high close this week.”

Looking at gold’s current climb from $1,982 on Dec. 13 to yesterday’s high above $2,088, Low said that “[t]hinner liquidity conditions may still cast some doubts over the latest move higher” but he said there are still good arguments for gold to move even higher as 2024 approaches.

“And the seasonal tailwind in January is arguably one of the strongest points there could be in advocating for an extension higher,” he said.

Spot gold is currently trading at $2,068.37 per ounce at the time of writing, down 0.41% on the session but up 1.8% over the last five days, and up nearly 2.7% during the month.

“The way I see it, gold is poised for one of two things now,” Low said. “It is either we go off to the races to start the new year i.e. fresh record highs, or we get a notable squeeze lower before buyers reload on long positions. It would really surprise me if we got a quiet and slow January, all things considered.”

He added that his reticence to predict which outcome is more likely “is to do with the fact that I heavily detest reading too much into year-end and thin liquidity moves such as what we're seeing this week. As such, I still do hold some reservations about the high points for gold on the week currently.”

Other analysts are looking through the liquidity concerns at the geopolitical and macroeconomic environments, both of which suggest continued strength for gold prices, with the potential for new all-time highs in January.

“The most likely scenario in the current context points towards a continued upward trajectory, with the initial target in the vicinity of $2100 per ounce,” said analyst Damian Nowiszewski at Investing.com.

“The recent strong demand shot established a new historical high in the $2150 per ounce price area, but these were quickly negated,” he wrote. “Buyers are not short of fuel, however, and all indications are that they will be able to permanently overcome the key resistance area tested several times over the past few years located near the round barrier of $2100.”

“The natural target for demand is the area around $2150 and the next round barrier of $2200,” Nowiszewski said. “Possible corrective movements should be limited by the local upward trend line and demand zones near $2000 and $1950 per ounce.”

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold up a bit on bullish outside markets, technical buying

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Gold up a bit on bullish outside markets, technical buying teaser image

(Kitco News) – Gold prices are slightly higher and silver prices slightly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Quieter, post-holiday trading is featured. Bullish charts are prompting some mild speculator buying interest in both precious metals. The key outside markets were also bullish for the metals today, as the U.S. dollar index was modestly weaker and crude oil prices were solidly higher. Some profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders did limit gains in gold and silver today. February gold was last up $1.70 at $2,070.60. March silver was last down $0.07 at $24.50.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures slightly higher at midday. Some markets, including those in the U.K., Germany and France, remained closed Tuesday after the Christmas holiday Monday.

Reports said the U.S. military carried out retaliatory air strikes on Monday in Iraq after a drone strike from Iran-aligned militants left one U.S. serviceman in critical condition and wounded two others. Markets showed no significant price reactions to the news.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.906%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,076.30 and then at last week’s high of $2,083.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,065.10 and then at last Friday’s low of $2,058.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $24.70 and then at last week’s high of $24.895. Next support is seen at today’s low of $24.34 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 10 points at 390.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective

is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 404.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 372.90 cents. First resistance is seen at the December high of 394.50 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 384.10 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Try out my “Markets Front Burner” email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, “When China sneezes…” Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it’s free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Interest rate decisions give gold and silver a Christmas boost

The final interest rate decisions of 2023 have given precious metals a further price boost today. The US dollar has fallen to a four-month low as markets anticipate 2024 will see rate cuts, pushing gold back above $2,000.

The Federal Reserve have spent previous months pushing back against the idea of rate cuts in 2024, stating that rates would need to be ‘higher for longer’ to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. With inflation falling however, and the US economy so far proving resilient to higher interest rates, it seems the Fed’s monetary policy committee have turned dovish.

Although the Fed left interest rate unchanged last night as expected, the dot plots from its members (charting expectations for rates in the year ahead) suggested that the Fed itself expects that rates will begin to fall next year. Despite Chairman Jerome Powell cautioning that rates could still rise if needed, markets took the dot plots as the sign they were looking for. Stock markets rose, and the US Dollar Index has dropped 1.2% since last night’s announcement.

14123 USD Chart

The gold price saw a spike as the Federal Reserve announced their latest rate decision.

Gold gained more than 2.5% as a result, jumping from $1,978 to $2,040 in just a few hours, and has so far stabilised in the $2,030 – $2,040 range. Silver gained over 6% in the same period, climbing from $22.53 to push past $24 per ounce. US rate cuts will be a key driver for gold and silver in 2024, and last night was the clearest indication that such cuts are on their way.

The Bank of England also left UK rates on hold today, but with a more hawkish tone. Three of the committee’s eight members even voted to hike rates up to 5.5% but were outvoted by the other five. The UK is in a very different position to the US, with UK core inflation still at 5.6% in October, and the BoE will likely have to keep rates at current levels further into 2024 than the US.

Thanks to a falling dollar, and the more hawkish tone of the BoE, the pound has enjoyed a strong 24 hours. Sterling has climbed to a high of $1.27221 since the Bank’s latest decision was announced, the highest GBP has been against the dollar in over three months.

 

Although the stronger pound has slightly reduced gold and silver’s gains both metals have still benefitted from the weaker dollar. Gold has risen 1.7% in less than 24 hours and is currently just holding onto £1,600 per ounce. Silver gained 5.5% in the same period, climbing from £17.99 to pass £19 per ounce.

With the UK economy showing increasing signs of weakness, the Bank could perhaps be acting more hawkish than necessary, while the strength of the US economy could leave the Fed looking too optimistic. Despite markets winding down for the holidays, it won’t be too long to wait for the next rate decisions, which will only become increasingly important for gold and silver as anticipation builds for the first rate cut. The Fed will make their next announcement on January 31st with the BoE following suit on February 1st.

Having set a short-lived but significant new record less than two weeks ago, gold is still seeing historically high levels, and rate cuts resulting in a weaker dollar will only be to gold’s benefit. Whether gold can surpass the $2,200 needed for a new all-time high remains to be seen, but all the pieces are there as 2024 progresses.

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold Price News: Gold Nudges Higher as Markets Watch Central Banks

Market Analysis

Gold prices firmed slightly on Tuesday, showing signs of stability after a decidedly bearish start to the week.

KAU/USD 1-hourly

Prices moved in a range of $1,983 to $1,997 an ounce through the day, after falling as low as $1,976 an ounce on Monday.

Looking ahead this week, the US Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates at the current 22-year high of 5.5% in a decision scheduled for Wednesday, with the markets looking for further clues on the outlook ahead of the Fed’s next meetings in December, January and March.

Data from interest rate traders currently indicates a 54% probability that the central bank will hold rates unchanged at its March meeting, and a 44% chance of a 25-basis point cut. It should be cautioned that these implied probabilities fluctuate on a day-to-day basis as the trading environment evolves. Interest rates matter for gold prices because they affect the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.

Interest rate decisions are also due on Thursday by the ECB and Bank of England – both expected to hold rates unchanged at 4.5% and 5.25% respectively as central banks seek to keep inflation under control.

Gold also continues to take support from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A cruise missile launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen hit a Norwegian-flagged oil and chemical tanker in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, according to news reports. This latest incident serves to highlight the risk that the conflict between Israel and Palestine could spill over into other regions. Heightened geopolitical risks tend to drive investment into safe havens such as precious metals.

Looking further out, Friday will see the release of Chinese industrial production figures and German manufacturing PMI flash data, which are likely to provide the latest indicators of economic health in those major economies.

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Did today’s statement by Fed President Williams cause a sell-off in gold?

After trading to a high of $2059.60 today, gold futures closed lower. As of 4:20 PM, gold futures basis the most active February 2024 contract is down $17.90 or 0.87% and fixed at $2033.40. Today’s selloff follows two days of strong gains that occurred immediately after the conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, gold futures opened at $1995 and surged higher by $48.10 closing at $2043.30. Yesterday gold gained an additional $8.20 after trading to a high of $2062.90 and closing at $2051.30.

The price surge that occurred on Wednesday and Thursday was in response to the release of the FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and comments by Chairman Powell on Wednesday. All the information from the Fed indicated a major pivot in their monetary policy.

This pivot from interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat spiraling inflation above 8 ½% in March 2022 has been highly anticipated recently. Their aggressive pivot to a restrictive monetary policy included 11 rate hikes, taking their benchmark interest rates from near zero to between 5 ¼% and 5 ½ % in just over a year. Although the Federal Reserve stopped raising rates a few months ago and announced a series of rate hike pauses, comments by Federal Reserve officials remained close to the chest avoiding any information about when they planned to begin rate cuts.

That changed on Wednesday with the release of their economic projections which contained detailed information revealing that central bank officials almost unanimously are anticipating interest rate cuts to begin next year, with the expectations of a ¾% cut taking Fed funds rates to approximately 4.6%.

The immediate reaction was a strong decline in the dollar, which set into motion strong gains in gold as a result of bullish market sentiment and dollar weakness. Today, dollar strength was all that was needed for traders to pull profits on the recent advance in gold prices. The dollar gained 0.62% and gold dropped by 0.88% revealing that today’s price decline in gold futures was primarily due to dollar strength with a smaller component the result of market participants actively selling gold.

The question becomes whether this will be a one-off or a pivot from the recent gains in gold, or the beginning of a price correction. An important factor in today’s price decline was a recent statement by New York Fed President Williams. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box today, Williams said, “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now,”.

This contrasts with Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday, as well as the dot plot that was released on Wednesday. The dot plot revealed that there were only two voting members who did not believe they would cut rates next year, making this author believe that Fed President John Williams was one of those two voting members, and if so, he represents a small minority.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold, silver rally as Federal Reserve leans surprisingly easy

Gold and silver prices sharply up in midday U.S. trading Thursday, in the aftermath of surprisingly dovish rhetoric on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. February gold was last up $56.50 at $2,054.00. March silver was last up $1.579 at $24.505. (Gold and silver futures prices had officially settled before the FOMC meeting concluded Wednesday afternoon. Thus, the big gains noted in today's prices.)

The marketplace got a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Wednesday. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, the committee and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pivoted from their heretofore hawkish rhetoric of a tight monetary policy and toward loosening policy, including future interest rate cuts. The Fed's "dot plots" now indicate three interest rate cuts (totaling 0.75%) in 2024. Markets cheered the Fed news as the U.S. stock indexes hit new highs for the year, gold prices soared back above $2,000, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and Treasury yields declined. The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped below 4%. The now much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace should work to support further gains in equities and commodity markets for at least the near term. A Barrons headline today reads: "Markets rejoice as Fed doves take flight…."

The Bank of England kept its monetary policy steady at its regular meeting Thursday, as expected. The European Central Bank also kept its policy steady, but ECB President Christine Lagarde still sounded a hawkish tone in her press conference.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report this morning did not support the Fed's monetary-policy-easing rhetoric Wednesday afternoon, and that likely helped to push gold and silver prices down from their daily highs.

  Fed's Powell confirms FOMC believes terminal rate has been reached, says outlook reflects latest CPI and PPI data

U.S. stock index futures are firmer at midday and hit new contract highs and new highs for the year, when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record-high today.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hit a four-month low, on follow-through selling pressure from Wednesday's sharp losses. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and trading around $72.00 a barrel, after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.908%.

Technically, February gold futures prices Wednesday scored a bullish "outside day" up after hitting a three-week low early on. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained strength. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,062.90 and then at $2,072.70. First support is seen at today's low of $2,039.10 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices Wednesday scored a big and bullish "outside day" up after hitting a three-week low early on today. The silver bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week's low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at $24.75 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at $24.00 and then at $23.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,060 points at 389.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained power today. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 404.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 372.90 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 390.95 cents and then at the December high of 393.30 cents. First support is seen at 385.00 cents and then at today's low of 382.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5..

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

FOMC statement leans dovish, gold price rallies

Gold and silver prices aare solidly higher and hit new daily highs in the aftermath of the Fed's FOMC meeting conclusion. The FOMC statement was surprisingly dovish on U.S. monetary policy, which pushed the precious metals markets sharply up. February gold was last up $26.60 at $2,020.10. March silver was last up $0.434 at $23.425.

On the front burner of the marketplace is the just-concluded two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC statement said U.S. economic growth has moderated but inflation remains elevated. Most FOMC officials now see rate cuts coming in 2024. 2025 and 2026. The marketplace is reading the FOMC statement as being surprisingly dovish on U.S. monetary policy. Now the marketplace awaits the press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It's still expected Powell may lean at least a bit hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished.

This week's U.S. inflation data in the form of the consumer price and producer price indexes for November came in close to market expectations and suggest U.S. inflation continues to cool. The data somewhat assuaged the marketplace, at least for the moment, as the U.S. stock indexes this week hit new for-the-move highs amid a seasonal Santa Claus rally.

  Gold to outperform silver and platinum as weak growth forces the Fed to cut rates in 2024 – Heraeus

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and selling off after the FOMC statement. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $69.75 a barrel after hitting a 5.5-month low overnight. The down-trending crude oil market is casting a pall over much of the raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.092% and down from just before the FOMC statement was released.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit a three-week early on low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but regained some momentum today. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,050.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,955.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,023.70 and then at the October high of $2,039.70. First support is seen at $2,000.00 and then at today's low of $1,987.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-week low early on today. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at $23.75 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at today's low of $22.785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 30 points at 378.45 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 393.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 383.60 cents and then at last Friday's high of 386.40 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 375.30 cents and then at last week's low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold up, but loses altitude as FOMC meets

Gold prices are modestly higher and silver around steady near midday Tuesday. Both metals modestly extended overnight gains and hit session highs following a morning U.S. inflation report that was in line with expectations. However, prices have backed down from daily highs on position evening as the U.S. central bank will provide an update on its monetary policy Wednesday afternoon. Solidly lower crude oil prices are also a bearish daily outside-market element for the metals. February gold was last up $3.50 at $1,997.10. March silver was last down $0.008 at $23.05.

The U.S. economic data point of the day saw the consumer price index report for November come in at up 3.1%, with the core rate (minus food and energy) coming in at up 4.0%. Both figures are year-on-year and are the same readings as seen in the October report. The November year-on-year numbers came in right in line with market expectations. The modest rallies in gold and silver following the CPI data suggest traders were relieved inflation did not uptick in November. Recent economic data from the world's major economies has generally shown cooling inflation.

Focus is now squarely on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged. However, it's also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean a bit hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished. Still, many market watchers expect the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates by mid-year in 2024.

  Gold is poised for new all-time highs in 2024 – World Gold Council

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly down, near the recent for-the-move low, and trading around $69.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.227%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,075.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,955.40. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,012.50 and then at this week's high of $2,023.70. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,991.20 and then at $1,975.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.45 and then at $23.75. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 115 points at 379.20 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 393.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 383.60 cents and then at Friday's high of 386.40 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 376.65 cents and then at last week's low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold, silver down amid bearish daily outside markets

Gold and silver prices are down near midday U.S. trading Monday. A firmer U.S. dollar index and a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week are bearish outside market forces for the metals markets. Both metals have also seen their near-term chart postures deteriorate recently, especially in silver. That’s inviting fresh technical selling. Gold and silver bulls are hoping for some friendlier fundamental news with this week’s batch of important economic data. February gold was last down $16.20 at $1,998.20. March silver was last down $0.226 at $23.04.

U.S. stock indexes are slightly up near midday. It’s a quieter start to the trading week, but at mid-week the Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy meeting (FOMC) results. Key U.S. inflation data is also due out this week. The European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

Traders this week will also keep a closer eye on big U.S. Treasury bond and note auctions on Monday and Tuesday. The U.S. government will sell over $20 trillion of its debt this year. Some market watchers wonder how much longer the U.S. can keep selling more and more of its debt to the marketplace, without serious disruption.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.26%.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit a three-week low today. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,075.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,955.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,023.70 and then at the October high of $2,039.70. First support is seen at $1,990.00 and then at $1,975.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-week low today. The silver bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 385 points at 379.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 393.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 383.60 cents and then at Friday’s high of 386.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 377.55 cents and then at last week’s low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Contact jwyckoff@kitco.com

www.kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Analysts turn bearish on gold, while retail investors remain bullish

Gold gave up much of its recent gains during the first full week of December trading. After posting its first-ever monthly close above $2,000 last Friday, then opening Monday's Asian trading session with a new all-time high of $2,150 per ounce, the precious metal trended steadily downward in the following days, and was clinging to support around the $2,000 level on Friday afternoon.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows most retail investors are still expecting price gains next week, while the overwhelming majority of market analysts have turned bearish or neutral on the yellow metal's near-term prospects.

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, has moved from bullish to neutral on gold for next week. "With the US Dollar upticking and following last week's blow-off to the upside, I think we have to be cautious here," he said. "So, I am voting NEUTRAL for now."

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he's bearish on gold prices for the coming week.

"The market reaction to today's nonfarm payrolls and wage inflation data pushed up treasury yields and USD while knocking gold back a bit," he said. "I think the Fed is going to be less dovish than the street is hoping which may continue the correction in Gold that started after the overnight spike that started this trading week."

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, sees gold prices rising next week. "Gold has had a tendency to set bear traps this year and the reversal seen earlier in the week may be setting up something similar," he said. "If the weekly bar of spot Gold closes below $2k that's going to look like an aggressive reversal candle. But, really, I'm not sure the risk backdrop supports such a thesis at the moment, and there are two major drivers next week with CPI and FOMC, so matters can change quickly."

"What we have seen so far was bulls showing up with support at or around that $2k level even after the massive reversal move to open the week," Stanley said.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, has switched his stance on the precious metal from neutral to negative. "Though the fundamental longer-term outlook is very positive, gold is vulnerable to bad news after such a strong run up, as I wrote last week. And we seem to have got that bad news with a stronger-than-expected official U.S. jobs report, destroying the optimism of other recent reports, and mitigating expectations of rate cuts any time soon."

Day said he sees "further downside" for the yellow metal. "Gold could easily fall back under $2,000, to support around $1975," he said. "However, the fundamental premise is that the Fed and other central banks will stop tightening in the face of deteriorating economies and unmanageable debt burdens while inflation remains stubborn, and this scenario is very bullish for gold."

This week, 15 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and only three experts, or 20%, expected to see higher gold prices next week. Eight analysts, or 53%, predicted a drop in price, while the remaining four experts, representing 27%, were neutral on gold for the coming week.

Meanwhile, 729 votes were cast in Kitco's online polls, and market participants are maintaining their bullish outlook for the coming week despite this week's decline. 428 retail investors, or 59%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 167, or 23%, expected it would be lower, while 134 respondents, or 18%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Kitco Gold Survey

Wall Street

Bullish20%

Bearish53%

Neutral27%

VS

Main Street

Bullish59%

Bearish23%

Neutral18%

The latest survey shows that retail investors expect gold prices to trade around $2,056 per ounce next week.

Central banks will once again take center stage in the coming week, with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the ECB and Bank of England decisions on Thursday. All three are expected to hold interest rates unchanged, though investors will still be watching to see if there is a shift in their tightening biases and projections.

Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. CPI on Tuesday, U.S. PPI on Wednesday, and the Empire State manufacturing survey and Flash PMI on Friday.

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, said the pause in the gold price rally this week coincided with the pause in the slide in yields. "The yields stopped going down, and are starting to look like maybe they're overdone," he said. "I think gold as a market is questioning whether or not this thing can have the momentum to go higher."

Pavilonis believes the catalyst for the spike to all-time highs was geopolitics, "the Red Sea situation, aircraft carriers, some U.S. vessel was shot at," he said. "Then it sold off pretty quick, and now we're just range-bound."

"This market has so many reasons to trade at a much higher level, and it just really hasn't, although it has stayed at elevated levels," he added. "I think now you have another competing force with Bitcoin. The cryptocurrencies have started to take off again, and we've seen this last time cryptos took off. Are cryptos stealing some of that purchasing power away from gold?"

"My call for next week would be range-bound sideways," Pavilonis said. "It just seems like $2,000 is a magnet. We fall below it, we get back up there. We thought we'd rise above it, we fall back down to $2,000. I think it's the target, that's where the market is comfortable right now."

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, believes gold can move higher next week. "The weak hands have been shaken out of gold after the squeeze to start the week, but the fundamental picture remains intact," he said.

"I like gold lower next week," said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. "The massive key reversal on Monday sets the technical tone. A break of $2006 could see $1985. Moreover, five G10 central banks meet next week, and most will likely push against the aggressive rate cuts and early timing the market is discounting."

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, has joined the bears for the near term. "February gold completed a bearish key reversal on its daily chart Monday, December 4, and did it in a big way," he said. "The contract consolidated for much of the rest of the week, but still remains in a short-term downtrend."

Heading into next week's trading, Newsom pegs initial short-term support at Tuesday's low of $2,027.60. "A break below that mark could trigger a selloff to test the next downside target of $1,997.40, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1,842.50 (October 6 low) to $2,152.30 (December 4 high)," he said.

Frank McGhee, head precious metals dealer at Alliance Financial, also expects to see lower gold prices over the coming week, as the precious metal is "still reacting to the High Volume, Exhaustion Highs @ 2150+/-."

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff expects gold prices to trade in a range next week. "Sideways and choppy as bears have gained some technical momentum late this week," Wyckoff said.

After kicking things off with a bang, gold prices slid steadily lower during the week, with spot gold falling 3.29% since Monday. The precious metal traded below $2,000 between Noon and 1:30 pm EST on Friday, but has since pulled back above that level, last trading at $2,001.71 per ounce, down 1.32% on the day at the time of writing.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden