Bitcoin [BTC] Makes Recovery Above $8000 – Here’s Why Some Analysts are Bullish

After a week of bearish moves, Bitcoin [BTC] price made a slight recovery on Friday. The rise attempted to break above the 200-Day Moving average, which acted as a resistance. It recorded a high at $8294.

The price of BTC at 3: 30 hours UTC on 28th September 2019 is $8176. It is trading 2.27% higher on a daily scale. The entire crypto market turned slightly green after a week of aggressive selling.

BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart on Bitstamp (TradingView)

While some traders see this as a momentary correction, others are also seeing a reversal.

The bears are eyeing sub $5k levels for a good entry point. However, it echoes with the situation earlier in Q1 this year. While the price has been bearish, the overall sentiments are bullish.

Moreover, even on the downside, crypto traders will be looking for a buying opportunity. UglyOldGoat, crypto trader and analyst tweeted on a sub $5k prediction

Just as I was bullish at 3,500 bearish at over 11,500 I can only be bullish at 7800 – 8200. Bakkt is bullish and structure changed when we rekt weak specs with future backwardation. The good thing is Bitcoin will be right regardless.

On-chain Vs. Price Movements

The recent uncertainty in price seems to be rising from opposing views of fundamental and technical analyses.

Bitcoin mining hashrate is at an all-time high, the transaction volume and realized price has also increased considerably. Moreover, long-term ‘hodlers‘ have also increased significantly. Leading on-chain analyst Willy Woo tweeted,

Structure is bullish, you can’t turn that around with a whiplash in price. Bull phases and bear phases of market cycles do not turn on a dime, especially on-chain.

However, the break-down below 200-Day Moving average is currently acting as a significant bear indicator. $7000-7500 has been the predicted range of this move. Sawcruhteez, a crypto-trader is turning bullish on technical indicators as well. He tweeted on why he is turning bullish, he said,

That was mainly due to the RSI bull div and the ADX rollover. I mentioned that final confirmation would come from a break of the 4 hour Lucid SAR, which just occurred. Now all systems are a go!

Bitcoin Price Analysis on the 4-Hour (Source: Twitter)

The next couple of weeks will be instrumental in confirming the year-end trend for Bitcoin. The speculations in Bitcoin [BTC] will further increase as halving comes closer well. The scheduled event in May 2020 has been creating a strong influence on market psychology.

Do you think December 2019 will be bullish or bearish? Please share your views with us.

Nivesh Rustgi Bitcoin News 1 min ago

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin's sharp decline – The cryptocurrency falls below $8,000

Bitcoin lost about 20 percent of its value since Friday.

On Thursday, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index showed a decline of as much as eight percent for the cryptocurrency [File: Mary Turner/Bloomberg]

Bitcoin extended its five-day losing streak on Thursday and dropped below $8,000 for the first time since June as a growing list of concerns weighed on crypto assets.

Bitcoin fell as much as 9% to $7,736 in New York, according to Bloomberg composite pricing, before bouncing off the lows of the day. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index that tracks a basket of cryptocurrencies slumped more than 8% as peer coins, including Ether and XRP, also sold off. That's the lowest level since May for the index.

There is "no good catalyst to drive it higher," said John Spallanzani, portfolio manager at Miller Value Partners. Bitcoin was never able to regain the near-$14,000 highs it reached over the summer, he said, adding that the "market got tired and volume dried up."

Investors cited a variety of reasons for the slump that's seen Bitcoin lose about 20% of its value since Friday. Some pointed to a lackluster reception to the first Bitcoin futures contracts that were offered by the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s Bakkt platform. Others pointed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delaying a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded product. Still, others said the expiration of CME futures contracts set to take place this week is causing turbulence.

Here is what market-watchers are saying:

"As the volumes on these contracts have been particularly high this week, this month's close could be particularly volatile," Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at trading platform eToro, wrote in a note in reference to the CME contracts.

"A Bitcoin ETF isn't likely to arrive on U.S. exchanges in 2019," James Seyffart, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, wrote in a note. "The SEC has made clear that it's concerned about Bitcoin price manipulation on exchanges without any regulatory oversight or surveillance."

"The crypto market drop will be a rude awakening for anyone who was starting to speculate that Bitcoin was becoming a 'safe haven' asset. However, compared to historical volatility patterns, a drop like this barely registers. There have always been sharp periods of volatility in crypto, and this kind of activity is only to be expected as the asset continues to grow," said Gavin Smith, chief executive officer at Panxora.

"There are many potential reasons for the recent fall in the price Bitcoin. It could be 'selling the news' on the launch of Bakkt, which has so far seen much lower than expected volumes of trading go through its platform following months of hype. It could also be in response to the rapid decline in Bitcoin's hash rate (amount of computation in the system) though this now seems less likely as the hash rate has somewhat recovered. Many cycle traders were also saying that Bitcoin was due a cycle low in early October, so that seems on point," said George McDonaugh, chief executive officer at KR1.

Falling below the $8,000 level could mean Bitcoin would test its 200-day moving average support, which sits around $7,000. And according to the Trading Envelope Indicator, a technical tool that smooths moving averages to map out higher and lower limits, the coin has fallen below its lower band.

Following a break below $8,000, "a quick move back to $6,000 would not be out of the question," said Spallanzani.

by By Vildana Hajric • Bloomberg

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin And Crypto Market Bearish Continuation – LTC, BNB, BCH, TRX Analysis

• The total crypto market cap dived more than $50.0B and tested the $200.0B support.

• Bitcoin price is down more than 10% and it is currently consolidating below the $8,500.

• Binance coin (BNB) price tumbled below the $18.50 and $16.50 support levels.

• Litecoin (LTC) price is now trading well below the key $60.00 support area.

• BCH price tested the $200 level and it is currently consolidating near the $220 level.

• Tron (TRX) price spiked below the $0.0120 support area and it is currently correcting higher.

The crypto market cap and bitcoin (BTC) are signaling bearish continuation. Ethereum (ETH), litecoin, ripple, BCH, TRX, XLM, BNB and EOS are likely to extend their decline.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

BCH price started a nasty decline after it broke the $300 and $285 support levels against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair even broke the $250 support area and declined more than $75 in the past two days. It even tested the $200 support area and is currently consolidating near the $220 level.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $235 level. However, the main resistance for a strong recovery is near the $250 level. On the downside, the key support is near the $200 level.

Binance Coin (BNB), Litecoin (LTC) and Tron (TRX) Price Analysis

Binance coin (BNB) price declined more than 20% after it broke the $20.00 support area. BNB price traded below the key $18.50 and $16.50 support levels. Finally, it spiked below the $15.00 support and is currently consolidating losses near the $16.00 level. On the upside, there are many resistances near $16.20 and $16.50.

Litecoin price fell significantly after it failed to stay above the $70.00 and $65.00 support levels. LTC price declined below the $60.00 support and traded close to the $50.00 support area. A low was formed near $52.20 and the price is currently correcting towards the $58.00 and $60.00 resistance levels.

Tron price is down more than 25% and it recently broke many supports such as $0.0150 and $0.0140. TRX price even spiked below the $0.0120 level and traded towards $0.0112. It is currently correcting above $0.0125, but it is likely to face resistance near $0.0135 and $0.0140.

Looking at the total cryptocurrency market cap 4-hours chart, there was a nasty decline below the key $250.0B support area. The market cap declined around $50.0B and tested the $200.0B support area. It is currently consolidating losses above $210.0B. However, it seems like there is a bearish continuation pattern forming with resistance near $220.0B. If there is a downside break below $208.0B and $205.0B, there are chances of more losses in bitcoin, Ethereum, EOS, litecoin, ripple, binance coin, BCH, TRX, XMR, XLM and other altcoins in the near term.
 

Aayush Jindal

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin Teeters on $10K, But Can It Fend Off Another Bear?

Bitcoin’s recent market movements have thrown into contention consensus about its short-term price direction, with traders asking openly if demand is strong enough to fend off another bear market.

Such a question has emerged in the wake of the world’s largest cryptocurrency’s inability to set new highs above those seen in June and July, when optimism about a Facebook cryptocurrency launch pushed the price of bitcoin to $13,880 and $13,200 on June 26 and July 10, respectively.

Since then, bitcoin has largely failed to test these highs again, prompting speculation traders may be willing to push the market into a lower range, one that could be deepened by available futures options.

However, investors and analysts remain bullish based on the assumption that demand will continue its current course, helping to sustain prices around $10,000 until next year’s May halving takes effect. Then, investors will see the amount of new bitcoin introduced to the market daily cut in half, with each new block in the blockchain producing 6.25 BTC, down from 12.5 BTC.

As can be seen by the recent litecoin halving, events that increase the perceived scarcity of cryptocurrencies have proven to catalyze buying interest.

Further, Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, an investment management firm focused on the asset class, argues that with the likes of Bakkt and Fidelity opening their doors to new money amid current global economic tensions, bitcoin looks attractive to large hedge fund managers seeking to offset risk in traditional markets.

Dorman told CoinDesk:

“Most macro hedge funds are contemplating using BTC as a better way to offset the systemic risks that are building globally. There seems to be too much interest and too much money on the sidelines for the market to really go lower in any meaningful way.”

Factoring Miner Demand

Analyzing the cryptocurrency markets remains an evolving science, but new metrics suggest that bitcoin may currently be priced favorably ahead of the halving event.

The Diffiulty Ribbon, created by influential market analyst Willy Woo, for example, was recently released. It helps illustrate how leading analysts believe miner selling pressure affects the price of bitcoin.

(As miners are believed to sell the BTC they receive from winning block rewards – to pay employees, electrical bills and other real-world costs – they are believed to influence market direction.)

The above chart shows bitcoin’s “network difficulty,” a function of how hard the software makes it to discover a new block and thus claim the new cryptocurrency it releases to the market.

When the rate of network difficulty increases slows, analysts believe this is a sign miners are shutting off their hardware (leaving only the strong miners who proportionally need to sell fewer coins to remain operational). It’s believed this leads to reduced sell pressure and more room for price increases.

The ribbon consists of simple moving averages of BTC network difficulty so the rate of change of difficulty can be easily seen. According to Woo, the best times to buy BTC are zones where the ribbon compresses.

He said:

“The timing of the last difficulty ribbon compression is very bullish, especially given we expect another compression at the halving, I don’t think we have time to come into a bear season before then.”

Holding $10K

That said, less sophisticated investors may be using simple price charts to gauge entries.

The last two months have produced a series of lower highs putting a clamp to further growth. This can be observed in the amount of sell pressure bitcoin has seen when approaching upper resistances $10,800-$13,200.

Still, prices have held above $10,000 by the end of each daily closing period for nearly 30 days, suggesting that demand for bitcoin below that mark remains strong. As a result, some analysts believe BTC’s outlook would only change bias from bullish-to-bearish long-term should a firm close below $7,333 (200-day moving average) occur.

Still, the pressure is now mounting on the bulls to produce something significant in the short-term or else risk exposing lower supports at $9,600.

Whether or not short-term price action remains bearish, analysts agree that BTC is still bullishly bid based on its position above the aforementioned 200-daily moving average and current mining activity.

However, Dorman argues simple psychology may be the overriding factor so long as $10,000 remains a strong support and belief in the halving as a price catalyst remains strong.

He concluded:

“In general, across any asset class, when consensus is to buy lower… you rarely get that chance.”

Sebastian Sinclair

Aug 28, 2019 at 04:00 UTC

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden