Solid gains for gold, silver as Jackson Hole looms
Gold and silver prices are solidly up in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week. More short covering by the futures traders and perceived bargain hunting are featured in the two precious metals. The technical posture for silver has significantly improved this week, which is inviting chart-based speculators to the long side of that market. December gold was last up $20.60 at $1,946.60 and September silver was up $0.91 at $24.36.
Traders and investors are anxiously awaiting the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming late this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are set to give speeches. The speeches are expected to provide insights into the future monetary policy direction of their respective central banks. The ECB is expected to pause its recent tightening cycle at its September meeting, while U.S interest rates are expected by most to remain elevated for an extended period due to still-significant upward inflationary pressures. The marketplace will be listening closely for a potential shift in the Fed’s inflation goal. An upward revision to the Fed’s present target of around 2% annual inflation could have major implications for the U.S. bond market, particularly longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, likely increasing Treasury yields which are already at the highest levels since 2007.
The Wall Street Journal today reported general U.S. annual inflation has dropped to 3.2%, from a peak of 9.1%. While the Federal Reserve has forced about two-thirds of the problematic inflation genie back into her bottle, there’s still more work to do. That will very likely be the theme of Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. Powell cannot err on the side of loosening monetary policy too quickly and potentially reigniting inflation that would likely become even worse than the latest surge. Thus, he’ll lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy in Friday’s speech. ECB President Legarde is also likely to sound modestly hawkish, but probably less so than Powell.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly down, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.2%.
Technically, December gold futures were up $19.20 at $1,945.30 in midday trading and near the session high. Short covering was seen after prices hit a five-month low Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,980.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $1,950.00 and then at $1,965.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,926.20 and then at this week’s low of $1,913.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
September silver futures were up $0.89 at $24.335 at midday and near the session high. Prices hit a three-week high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now starting to trend up. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $25.475. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $22.265. First resistance is seen at $24.50 and then at $24.75. Next support is seen at $24.00 and then at today’s low of $23.475. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
September N.Y. copper closed up 485 points at 380.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 362.70 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 381.55 cents and then at 385.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 375.70 cents and then at 371.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
By
Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden