Gold steadies as coronavirus fears counters China economic data

* Coronavirus death toll crosses 900

* Dollar touches 4-month peak By Asha Sistla Feb 10 (Reuters) – Gold prices held steady on Monday, as rising concerns over the severity of the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the global markets offset slight pressure from positive economic data from China and the United States.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,569.05 per ounce by 0313 GMT. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,572.70. A team of international experts led by the World Health Organization left for Beijing to help investigate the epidemic that claimed more than 900 lives in mainland China, surpassing the death toll from the SARS epidemic. Asian shares fell on market fears over the fallout from the epidemic. "There's still a great deal of uncertainty around the (virus) impact and we're seeing rising deaths and infections. The economic impacts are still unclear. If that's the case, we'll continue seeing reasonable support for gold," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. However, he said that a rise in China's January producer and consumer prices "minutely hurt" gold. Also capping gold's gains, the dollar touched a four-month peak earlier in the session against a basket of rival currencies after robust U.S non-farm payrolls data on Friday. The U.S. Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy slowed last year on weak global growth, but the likelihood of recession has declined.

The central bank flagged as risks the fallout from the coronavirus, "elevated" asset values and near-record levels of low-grade corporate debt. "Investors should continue to favour more defensive fixed income and, therefore, long gold positions until the impact of nCoV on growth becomes apparent," Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp, said in a note. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.13% to 916.08 tonnes on Friday, its highest since Oct. 29. Palladium advanced 0.6% to $2,329.83 an ounce, silver edged higher by 0.2% to $17.70, and platinum rose 0.6% to $970.83.

(Reporting by Asha Sistla in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

Sunday February 09, 2020 22:52

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold price is eyeing central banks' reaction to coronavirus – INTL FCStone

Gold price is eyeing central banks’ reaction to coronavirus – INTL FCStone

(Kitco News) Trying to measure economic fallout from the coronavirus is a difficult task, but when it comes to figuring out the virus’ impact on gold, investors should be paying attention to what central banks around the world are doing.

Any additional easing that might stem from slower economic growth will boost the case of holding gold long-term, said Rhona O’Connell, INTL FCStone head of market analysis for the EMEA and Asia regions.

“The potential industrial fallout from coronavirus is already leading a number of governments to cut interest rates or add to easing activity, while the U.S. 10-year bond has been dipping in and out of negative territory. This is all positive for gold in a risk-averse environment, although by definition we cannot know for how long it will be before this outbreak is controlled,” O’Connell wrote on Wednesday.

Equities have been rising this week as they recover from an earlier sell-off triggered by coronavirus fears. Gold saw some selling but managed to hold its $1,550 support level and consolidate above the $1,560-an-ounce level.

“The ?nancial markets have been a hive of activity since China’s return and after a rout on Monday … There was an almost palpable wave of relief on Tuesday when the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued injecting liquidity on a grand scale. This propelled Chinese equities higher and equities around the world were happy to take their cue accordingly,” O’Connell said.

But these market moves are just short-term noise, she added. What investors should be focusing on is what central banks from around the world decide to do next when dealing with the economic fallout from the virus.

“Asian governments are already starting to look at interest-rate decisions,” O’Connell pointed out. “Thailand has already cut rates … to a record low of 1.0% for its benchmark rate, arguing that a large number of businesses would be a?ected by the coronavirus as well as drought and a delay in passing the budget.”

The Philippines' central bank also cut rates this week by 25 basis points to 3.75% in response to the coronavirus.

On top of that, the Reserve Bank of Australia could be looking at cutting rates soon if economic growth is not fast enough in light of bush?res and coronavirus fallout. Other countries that recently cut rates further include Iceland and Bahrain. The European Union and Japan’s interest rates are already in the negative territory, O’Connell added.

“The interest-rate environment and the injection of liquidity into di?erent economies could well add a supportive factor to the market. Arguably this is already being priced in, but it should continue to be a tailwind in an era of ?nancial risk,” she wrote.

 

By Anna Golubova

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold falls 1% as China works to stem economic impact of virus

* Gold to stay in $1,550-$1,600/oz range for now – analyst

* Palladium jumps more than 4%

* U.S. factory orders rise above expectations

By Diptendu Lahiri

Feb 4 (Reuters) – Gold slid more than 1% on Tuesday as China’s steps to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic drove some investors away from safe havens and back into riskier assets.

Spot gold fell 1.61 % to $1,550.69 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EST (1840 GMT), after hitting its lowest since Jan. 21 at $1,548.70. U.S. gold futures settled down 1.7% at $1,555.50.

“The dramatic move in global equity markets, especially in the U.S. markets, clearly indicates there is lesser concern about coronavirus denting GDP and we have a lesser need for safe havens,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Wall Street built on a recovery in world stocks as fresh intervention by China’s central bank calmed investor nerves.

Beijing’s efforts included signing off on more government spending, tax relief and subsidies for virus-hit sectors, policy sources said.

The outbreak has undermined the country’s economic activity as cities are locked down, with travel restrictions and businesses closed.

Further, the dollar strengthened, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

 

Nevertheless, some uncertainty remained about the extent of the impact on the Chinese and global economies.

“In case the impact of the virus is less than the market has priced in, it could lead to a correction in gold prices, but as long as we don’t see economic growth accelerate, gold prices will remain supported,” said Quantitative Commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig.

Some traders have also started to price in a cut to U.S. interest rates by June.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion.

Gold should stay within a range of $1,550 to $1,600 an ounce ahead of more political and economic headlines, George Gero, managing director at RBC Wealth Management, said in a note.

On the economic front, new orders for U.S.-made goods rose 1.8%​​ in December, beating analysts’ consensus forecast of a 1.2% gain.

India’s gold imports in January plunged 48% from a year earlier as a rally in local prices near record highs prompted buyers to curtail purchases, a government source said.

Elsewhere, palladium gained 4.5% to $2,423.76, after touching its highest since Jan. 24 at $2,435.

“Now that optimism has returned to financial markets, it seems that market participants have forgotten their fears of how the spread of the coronavirus might affect demand,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

“Nonetheless, the consequences for China, the main consumer of palladium, are likely to be very serious.”

Silver fell 0.5% to $17.57, while platinum dipped 0.4%, to $962.83

 

(Reporting by Diptendu Lahiri and Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang and Tom Brown)

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold prices have formed a bottom – expect the next rally to target $1,900

Gold prices have been consolidating for a few months already, and the next breakout could take prices to 2011 highs of $1,923, this according to Peter Reznicek, head trader at shadowtrader.net.

“For me, the target just has to be the prior all-time high in 2011. I’m just looking at the $1,923 level, that would be fine, and then reassess the situation from there,” Reznicek told Kitco News.

Gold prices have been trading between $1,500 and $1,600 for quite some time, but Reznicek said that this consolidating movement is a very bullish sign.

“I like gold, I’m a long-term bull, I have been a long-term bull for quite some time. The way that I like to look at gold is simply to keep the technicals on as long of a timeframe as possible, so for me, I always go out to the monthly and I trade gold contracts, ETFs, and options as well according to those monthlies,” he said.

He added that since 2000, the market has been in a long-term uptrend that has just developed a bottom.

“This bottom on the monthly has taken years to develop and we’ve only started to see the breakout from that in about mid-2019 and that’s the rally that’s underway now,” Reznicek said.

 

By Kitco News

 

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold price starts week with small gains as China returns from holidays; coronavirus continues to spread

(Kitco News) – Global financial markets are taking the further escalation in the coronavirus in stride as S&P 500 futures start the new trading week in slightly positive territory.

However, investors aren't entirely ignoring risks as gold prices are also starting the week in positive territory, with some analysts looking for prices to push to $1,600 an ounce in the near-term.

March S&P 500 futures last traded at 3234 points, up 0.32% on the day; meanwhile, February gold futures last traded at $1,588.70 an ounce, up 0.37% on the day.

Market analysts and investors are particularly focused on this week's Asian open as China returns from its week-long Lunar New Year celebrations. However, investor sentiment could remain subdued; according to Chinese media, the China Securities Regulatory Commission had issued a verbal directive to brokerages to bar their clients from selling borrowed stocks.

The People's Bank of China is also pumping $21.7 billion into money markets to make sure there is enough liquidity as markets reopen after the holiday week.

The steps come after news that the coronavirus continues to spread. According to media reports, more than 300 people in China have died as a result of the virus. The number of infected people has jumped to more than 14,000.

International media are also reporting that the first person outside of China has died from the coronavirus.

It is still unclear what impact the virus will have on the health of the global economy. Still, some economists are already expecting to see a significant slowdown.

"There is still such little clarity on the fallout on China's economy, although we know it's going to be brutal and traders naturally are sensing an inevitable fallout in activity in China's key trade partners," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone in a report Sunday.

The growing uncertainty continues to support gold prices, according to some analysts.

In a recent comment to Kitco News, Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said that he is closely watching $1,600 an ounce.

"Growing fears over the coronavirus outbreak and negative impacts it may have on global economic growth should stimulate appetite for gold in the week ahead. Gold is trading around $1585 as of writing and could target $1600 in the short to medium term as risk aversion remains a dominant market theme," he said.

Other analysts have been disappointed with gold's performance in the face of growing negative investor sentiment. However, analysts at Capital Economics, said that gold prices have a chance to rally further as the virus continues to spread.

"There is scope for gold to rise much further if the Wuhan virus is not contained in the coming weeks. Indeed, if factory closures are further extended across mainland China, there could be a global economic fallout, which would be supportive of the gold price," the analysts said in a report Friday.

 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

PRECIOUS-Gold set for best month in five as virus stifles risk appetite

* World share index heads for worst week since August

* WHO opposes restrictions on travel or trade with China

* Gold gains over 4% so far this month, Palladium up 18%

Jan 31 (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Friday and were heading for their best month in five as worries over economic growth due to the fast-spreading coronavirus boosted appetite for safe havens.

Supply-squeezed palladium, meanwhile, was on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain since November 2016.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $1,585.66 per ounce by 01:55 p.m. EST (1855 GMT). The metal has gained more than 4% so far this month.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,587.90.

“Coronavirus continues to be a strong factor of support as we are seeing global growth concerns hurting other markets across the board. As a result, we’re seeing safe-haven demand drive into gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“Gold is the quintessential safe-haven asset that money managers are viewing as an alternative for cash.”

The World Health Organization declared the epidemic a global emergency after the virus killed more than 200 people.

“At this point, it’s not something the Chinese economy can shrug off. There will be a hit to growth, the magnitude of which will be difficult to chisel out in detail for quite a while,” said Ilya Spivak, a senior currency strategist at DailyFx.

The virus fears gripped financial markets, overshadowing the latest batch of upbeat corporate earnings.

“Gold is both continuing to find favour as a traditional safe haven and, at the same time, run into strong resistance on the run-up to $1,600, which is keeping a lid on gains,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said in a note.

On the physical side, however, an extended holiday in top consumer China due to the outbreak dimmed activity in Asian bullion hubs.

Auto-catalyst palladium, which is in short supply, has risen 18% so far this month, having hit a record high of $2,582.19 per ounce on Jan. 20. On the day, palladium was down 1.2% at $2,283.19.

“Palladium prices have really been in their own world … there is lot of demand for it in a tight supplied environment. We are seeing what industrial demand can do for prices,” High Ridge Futures’ Meger said.

Silver rose 1.1% to $18.02 an ounce. Platinum dipped 1.9% to $959.33 and was on track for its worst week since early November. (Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris Reese and Steve Orlofsky)

 

By Brijesh Patel

 

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold, silver prices gain as coronavirus fears quickly return

Gold and silver prices are higher, with silver posting solid gains, in early U.S. futures trading Thursday. Marketplace focus Thursday is right back on the coronavirus outbreak that is spreading. February gold futures were last up $7.10 an ounce at 1,577.50. March Comex silver prices were last up $0.263 at $17.75 an ounce.

The U.S. economic data point of the day Thursday saw the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP come in at up 2.1% on an annual basis, which is in line with market expectations. Markets showed little reaction to the report.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. Mainland China markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

After Tuesday and Wednesday shrugging off the coronavirus outbreak that is still not at all contained and apparently escalating, the marketplace on Thursday is again on edge and risk averse regarding the matter. The latest reports say over 7,700 Chinese are afflicted and over 170 have died. Global businesses located in China are closing their doors there and worldwide flights to China are being cancelled. The coronavirus outbreak is now being deemed more expansive than the SARS outbreak that occurred in Asia over 15 years ago.

U.S. traders are wondering if the seriousness of the coronavirus situation in China will give China a legal “out” on its recent signed trade-deal pledge to buy significantly more U.S. agricultural products in the next couple years.

At his press conference after the FOMC meeting conclusion Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the coronavirus outbreak could have consequences for global economic growth and said the Fed is monitoring the situation closely. That comment along with other less upbeat remarks on the U.S. economy from Powell, including saying U.S. business investment and U.S. exports are weak, boosted the gold and Treasury markets and pushed U.S. stock indexes off their daily highs. Crude oil prices also sunk at the same time. There is now talk in the marketplace that the Fed will be forced to lower U.S. interest rates later this year.

The FOMC at this week’s meeting held U.S. interest rates steady during its first policy meeting of the year and of the new decade, as expected. The benchmark federal funds rate remains in a range between 1.5% to 1.75%, where it has been for the past few months. The FOMC statement said the U.S. economy and labor market are growing moderately amid inflation that is non-problematic. Annual U.S. inflation remains below the 2% level that the Fed would like to see.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $52.25 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high earlier this week.

Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the January spike high is still strong chart resistance to overcome. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in February futures above solid resistance at the January high of $1,613.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,550.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,582.40 and then at this week’s high of $1,588.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,574.90 and then at $1,570.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $18.375 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $17.85 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $17.52 and then at this week’s low of $17.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
Thursday January 30, 2020 08:38

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Gold prices jump today. Now, just ₹700 away from record highs

Gold and silver prices have jumped amid coronavirus scare

Demand of gold in India may take a hit in near term due to a rally in prices

Gold and silver prices in India edged higher today as global rates firmed amid the coronavirus scare. On MCX, gold futures prices were up 0.66% to ₹40,618 per 10 gram, extending gains to the second session. Gold prices are now just ₹700 shy of record highs of ₹41,293, hit earlier this month. Silver rates today saw a sharper gain, rising 0.83% to ₹45,931 per kg. Gold can move higher towards ₹40,700 while taking support near ₹40,250 while silver can test ₹46,300 while taking support near ₹45,700, SMC Global said in a note.

In global markets, gold prices inched up on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve said the new coronavirus outbreak could hurt China's economy in the short term.

Spot gold prices were up marginally to $1,578.05 per ounce, after strong gains in the previous session. Among other precious metals, palladium rose 0.7% to $2,305.21 an ounce, silver gained 0.3% to $17.58, while platinum climbed 0.2% to $975.70.

Overnight, the US Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady but its Chair Jerome Powell said the coronavirus outbreak is may have some some effects on the Chinese economy, at least in the short term.

The World Health Organization is meeting again today to decide whether the new virus from China constitutes a global emergency as the death toll touched 170.

Indicative of the risk-averse sentiment across the gold, holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, rose 0.45% to 903.50 tonnes on Wednesday.

Back in India, high prices have hurt gold demand and it may not show any significant growth as consumers will take time to adjust to higher prices, a top official of World Gold Council told Bloomberg.

High prices, a slowdown in the domestic economy and weak consumption across sectors saw consumers shying away from gold markets last year. Gold prices had rallied 25% in India last year. (With Agency Inputs)

 

Edited By Surajit Dasgupta
Updated: 30 Jan 2020, 11:25 AM IST

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden

PRECIOUS-Gold dips as stocks recover, dollar gains ahead of Fed meeting

* Dollar rises to highest since Dec. 2

* Overall U.S. durable goods orders rise 2.4% vs 0.4% consensus

* New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods drop most in 8-months

* Fed’s two-day policy meeting starts later in the day

Jan 28 (Reuters) – Gold fell on Tuesday as equity markets rebounded following positive U.S. economic data while the dollar scaled a near two-month peak ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Spot gold was down 0.8% at $1,568.90 per ounce by 2:16 p.m. EST (1916 GMT), having touched its highest since Jan. 8 on Monday. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.5% at $1,569.8.

The S&P 500 rose over 1%, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rebounded from a near four-month low. The dollar rose to its highest since Dec. 2.

“There seems to be a little bit of a risk-on tone here. The fears of the coronavirus are still lingering in the market, (but) regardless of these fears there is going to a contingent that is willing to bargain hunt,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“The durable goods number was better-than-expected, so that could be increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve would not be dovish in the FOMC meeting and that is weighing on prices.”

In December, overall orders for durable goods rebounded 2.4% against an expected increase of 0.4%.

However, new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods dropped by the most in eight months, while shipments were weak suggesting that business investment contracted further in the fourth quarter.

The Fed’s first policy meeting of the year is scheduled to start later in the day, where it is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rates unchanged.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

However, concerns that the coronavirus outbreak could hinder the global economy persist, underpinning overall demand for gold, Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said.

Reactions to the spreading virus had been very different across markets and the decline in oil prices suggested a slowdown of economic activity in China.

 

The death toll from the virus reached 106 in China and some health experts are questioning whether Beijing can contain it.

 

Elsewhere, palladium gained 1.2% to $2,295.53 per ounce, after falling about 7% on Monday.

“We assume that the correction will continue, as the upswing beforehand was exaggerated in our opinion,” Commerzbank analyst said in a note.

Silver dropped 3.5% to $17.45, while platinum rose 0.4% to $986.91

 

Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan and Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru Editing by Marguerita Choy and Tom Brown

David – http://markethive.com/david-ogden